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Blog main article:
2³⁰⁰ Decisions - why optimal portfolio allocation is impossible without a navigation system
Executive Summary
2300 = 2037035976334486086268445688409378161051468393665936250636140449354381299763336706183397376
This figure represents the real decision space for modern portfolio and investment decisions. With 300 binary decisions (project yes/no, investment in/out), there are 2300 possible portfolios - a number with 91 digits. It does not describe a theoretical limiting case, but the practical reality of large project, investment and budget portfolios.
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The consequence is fundamental:
This decision space can neither be grasped intuitively nor mastered analytically.
- No human being
- no management committee
- no Excel simulation
- no classic AI model with sampling or heuristics
can fully explore this space or reliably navigate to the optimum.
In such dimensions, decision-making without a mathematical navigation system does not mean "slightly suboptimal", but rather structurally blind. Decisions are then inevitably based on simplifications, assumptions and chance - regardless of the experience regardless of the experience, amount of data or intelligence of those involved.
The visual representation of 2300 makes this reality immediately understandable: It shows why classic planning, scenario and evaluation approaches reach a hard mathematical limit - and why truly optimal allocation is only possible by systematically navigating the entire decision space.
Key message:
2300 possible portfolios - without a navigation system, every decision is chance.
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Dr. Igor Kadoshchuk is a computer scientist, algorithm architect, and one of the leading minds behind mAInthink's optimization and decision-making algorithms. As scientific director of the StratePlan™ and DeepAnT platforms, he combines in-depth mathematical research with practical applications in project portfolio optimization, business, finance, and public administration.
He holds a PhD in computer science from the renowned Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT), where he also taught as a professor of computer engineering and mathematics. He has decades of experience developing highly complex mathematical models for project portfolio optimization and financial systems, investment planning, and strategic decision-making. His professional career includes leading positions such as Head of IT at Gazprombank and Director of Project Management at TransTeleCom.
Dr. Kadoshchuk writes on the mAInthink AI Blog. Kadoshchuk on:
- Algorithmic strategy optimization
- New methods for calculating ROI and impact
- Project portfolio optimization beyond traditional tools
- The limits of human decision-making – and how AI overcomes them
His aim: to calculate strategy, not estimate it.
His contributions combine scientific precision with clear, understandable language – always with the goal of making complex decision-making spaces transparent, manageable, and measurable.