The invisible decision space - what do we not see today?
What looks like a single decision on paper or in Excel is actually part of a very complex decision portfolio. We show you how to calculate the ex ante overall impact of state and city measures. For the optimal starting position for the best political decisions.
mAinthink takes a completely new approach:
50 projects: Investment value: EUR 220 million
50 urban projects correspond to a mathematical combination space of 1,125 quadrillion possible combinations.
possible combinations (green) within the entire combination space.
No additional tax money is required. The optimization gives the city a maximum advantage.
A city budget example: 50 projects. The budget "only" € 100 million - with € 220 million project investment requirement - 1.125 quadrillion project combination possibilities.
Why all cities no longer have to "decide" their investment portfolio, but rather calculate it.
The initial situation - typical for small cities ➜ Also scalable to large cities and metropolitan areas
A small city with 50,000-80,000 inhabitants faces a realistic situation:
| Key figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Available investment budget | 100 million € |
| Politically desired projects | 50 projects |
| Total investment requirement | 220 million € |
These 50 projects include
- Schools and daycare centers
- Road renovations
- New development areas
- Climate protection and energy
- Digitization
- Sports halls
- Social and care infrastructure
- Administration buildings
- Neighborhood development
- Transportation
- and much more...
Each of these projects makes sense in its own right.
But: more than half of them cannot be financed.
So the crucial question is not:
"Which project is important?"
but rather:
"Which combination of these 50 projects will generate the highest overall impact for this city within €100 million?"
The invisible mathematical problem
With 50 projects, there are not 50 decision options.
There are:
2⁵⁰ = 1,125,899,906,842,624 possible project portfolios
Over a quadrillion different combinations!
Political bodies see perhaps 20-50 variants of these.
The rest remain invisible - even though that's where the best solutions lie.
This is not an organizational problem.
It is a calculation problem.
A size comparison:
our Milky Way and a city decision space with "only" 50 projects
of 1.125 quadrillion possible project combinations
What StratePlan changes here
StratePlan calculates the entire decision space and finds from it:
The one project combination that generates the maximum overall benefit for this city.
Not politically negotiated.
Not based on gut feeling.
But mathematically optimized from over 1 quadrillion possibilities.
What "up to 60 % more impact" means
Real municipal portfolios show that
Cities rarely make the wrong individual decisions.
They make the wrong combination decisions.
When StratePlan optimizes the portfolio ex ante - i.e. before any political decisions are made - the result is typically:
| Control | overall effect |
|---|---|
| Classic political prioritization | 100 % |
| StratePlan-optimized portfolio | 130-160 % |
In other words:
The same €100 million generates 30-60% more educational quality, climate impact, location attractiveness and future security.
Without an additional euro.
What the city gains in concrete terms
1. More service from the same budget
More:
- School quality
- Degree of refurbishment
- Climate protection
- Quality of life
with an unchanged budget.
2. Political security
The city council and administration can say:
"This combination is demonstrably the best of over a quadrillion alternatives."
Political decisions can be objectively justified.
3. Protection against structurally wrong decisions
Projects that look good individually but worsen the portfolio become visible - before they are built.
4. Sustainable urban development
StratePlan optimizes not only for today, but also for the
- long-term operating costs
- Follow-up costs
- demographic effects
- Growth dynamics
flow directly into the decision.
The future of municipal management
A city with:
- 50 projects
- 220 million € requirement
- 100 million € budget
- and 1,125,899,906,842,624 possible portfolios
can no longer rely on:
- Excel
- Committees
- political intuition
intuition.
They need a new kind of calculation engine to fully penetrate their decision-making space.
And that is exactly what StratePlan from mAInthink GmbH from Worms am Rhein is.