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How behavioral economics, mathematical optimization and hybrid AI improve investment decisions
In companies, investment decisions are often made on the basis of experience, business cases and management discussions. However, research in behavioral economics has shown for decades that such decisions are regularly influenced by cognitive biases - such as WACC fallacy, loss aversion, status quo bias or escalation of commitment.
These distortions mean that investment decisions are often not made completely rationally and economic potential remains untapped.
The actual problem is mathematical in nature
In addition to psychological factors, the central challenge lies in the mathematical structure of investment decisions. Investment planning is a classic problem of combinatorial optimization. With several projects, there are not just individual decisions, but an exponentially growing decision space of possible project combinations.
With each additional investment option, the number of possible portfolios increases dramatically. This creates a complex decision space, that can hardly be fully analyzed by humans or traditional planning tools.
Why traditional decision-making processes are reaching their limits
Traditional planning tools or sequential evaluation processes cannot fully calculate this decision space. In practice, projects are often evaluated individually or prioritized in rankings. This results in decisions that appear to make sense, but only represent local solutions.
In many cases, the actual best investment portfolio remains undiscovered because the complete decision space cannot be analyzed.
Hybrid AI and multithreading as a new solution approach
Modern approaches combine mathematical optimization, hybrid AI and precise multithreading to analyse billions of possible project combinations in parallel. These technologies make it possible for the first time to systematically calculate very large decision spaces.
The algorithm evaluates an enormous number of potential project portfolios and identifies the combination that offers the greatest economic benefit under budget, risk and resource constraints The highest economic benefit under budget, risk and resource restrictions.
From the local optimum to the globally optimal investment portfolio
The result is a new quality of strategic decision support. Investments are no longer evaluated exclusively, but optimized algorithmically. This enables companies not only to evaluate individual projects, but also to view the entire investment portfolio as a coherent optimization problem.
For companies, this means that capital is deployed where it generates the greatest added value. This allows investment portfolios to be systematically improve investment portfolios and tap into new, maximum EBIT potential that often remains hidden in traditional decision-making processes.
Sascha Rissel is an entrepreneur, founder and CEO of mAInthink GmbH, as well as a Board Member of KI Bundesverband Hessen and a WEF SME Member. For more than 20 years, he has been developing, scaling and optimizing technology-driven business models at the intersection of corporate strategy, technology and mathematical decision optimization.
With StratePlan, mAInthink is developing a Decision Intelligence solution for the mathematical optimization of CAPEX, capital allocation and investment portfolios in fixed assets. The objective is to calculate the optimal combination of investment projects under real-world budget, resource and dependency constraints, enabling organizations to generate greater impact from their existing capital.
Sascha Rissel's work focuses on CAPEX Optimization, Capital Allocation Optimization, Project Portfolio Optimization, Multi-Year CAPEX Strategy Planning and Live Boardroom Simulation. StratePlan combines mathematical optimization, algorithmic decision models and Hybrid AI to translate complex investment decisions into measurable business performance.
With CAPEX Live Boardroom Simulation, changes in budgets, priorities and constraints can be recalculated during a board meeting, alternative portfolios can be compared, and trade-offs can be made immediately visible. This transforms a sequential planning process into a new decision loop: question, calculation, comparison and decision within the same meeting.
Through the StratePlan Online Decision Service, Sascha Rissel also advances the concept of “Decision Intelligence 4 All”: making mathematical decision optimization accessible not only to large corporations, but also to mid-sized companies and the public sector.
Sascha Rissel regularly contributes his expertise through professional publications on Project Portfolio Management (PPM), CAPEX Optimization and Decision Intelligence. His work includes specialist contributions within the professional environment of the GPM German Association for Project Management, and he is a specialist author for ControllingPortal, writing about mathematically grounded approaches to investment, portfolio and corporate performance management.
His work focuses on measurable impact, transparent and robust decision-making, and transforming highly complex mathematical models into practical solutions for industry, business and the public sector.
His guiding principle: bringing strategy, technology and impact together consistently – and turning decisions into measurable performance.